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The War In Iraq has Polluted Relations between European Countries, between Europe and the US, and between Canada and the US May 2003 LONDON - The Iraq war has strewn geopolitical debris across Europe that will disrupt relationships for many years in the European Union, the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) and between Europe and the rest of the world. Canada is suffering collateral damage. The fallout has revived anti-Americanism in Europe that in the 1970s and 1980s was a normal part of the political mix. That was when US troops, missiles and airplanes took up a hefty part of European air and ground space, positioned there to deter the Soviet and East Bloc threat. Now much of the foreign military personnel and hardware deployed there, including Canadian soldiers and planes, have left. But the US retreat from Europe didn't mean it was retreating from what it saw as its responsibilities round the world, even in areas that Europeans believe are their traditional regions of influences, like the Middle East. So, the Americans and British bruised national egos in Europe. US Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld didn't help when he compared "new Europe," represented by Poland, Czechoslovakia and Spain, who backed the Iraq war, with "old Europe," including France, Russia, Germany and Belgium, who opposed it. Thus, another consequence of the war is that the European Union faces a more fractured future than it did before the Iraq war. And the war and postwar events in Iraq have shaken up the volatile world of oil politics in which France and Russia play a prominent part. Iraq is potentially the second-biggest oil producer in the world. Before the war Russia and, to a lesser extent, France saw (and still see) an opportunity to make money and secure influence in Iraq. They are clearly angry about being shut out of any postwar role in Iraq. They blame the Americans. The person left balancing on a tightrope between Europe and America is British Prime Minister Tony Blair. By jumping into the war on the US side, Blair could easily have lost his leadership or the chance for another term in office. But the normally pacifist Labour Party that he heads and the British people supported him in the crunch. Blair is now the only credible interpreter between Europe and America, and between the many factions in Europe. French President Jacques Chirac calls him when he wants to make his case for helping in the reconstruction of postwar Iraq. US President George W. Bush calls him when he needs a European view on international issues. It seems that all phone-lines lead through London these days. Canada could once claim to be a sometime mediator between Europe and the US while we maintained our troops in Europe and kept up a reasonably strong military establishment at home. Now we have neither and, in addition, we loudly told the Americans and, by implication, the British we would not back them in the Iraq war. The result is Canada's voice has less influence in the foreign offices of our major allies, the US and Britain, than at any time in the last 50 years. Put another way, our bargaining position in any negotiations involving the US and Britain will be weak. And it will take at least a change of leader in Ottawa, in the short run, and a pledge by the new leader to finance a robust military, in the long run, before Washington and London will listen attentively to what we say. World events have a way of moving so quickly that the last crisis is buried by a new one. In the process, the media move on and so do newspaper readers, TV viewers and publics in all countries. But the noise that the Iraq war caused, from those who supported it and those who opposed it, won't be soon forgotten . That will force countries like Russia, France and Canada, over the next few months and years, to reconstruct their foreign policies out of the geopolitical debris. Whether you are in Moscow, Paris, London, Ottawa or Washington, the sight of Europe pulling apart, transatlantic relations rotting and Canadian-American relations in limbo because of the Iraq war, is not a happy one. James Ferrabee is a contributing editor to Policy Options and a former foreign correspondent for Southam News who spent much of the 1980s in Europe. He just spent nearly three weeks in Britain. His column may be used without charge. He encourages comments on this and other articles to jferrabee@irpp.org. |