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Will the success of the euro speed up the process toward a common currency in North America? October 2002 PARIS - The venerable French franc will disappear soon from price lists in food markets, grocery stores and on the back of hotel room doors. So will the German Deutschmark, the Dutch guilder and the national currencies of nine other European countries. The official date when the national currencies of the 12 member states of the European Union (EU) tied to the euro will cease to exist is next February. But the date is meaningless because the euro is now fully integrated as the single currency in most of the European Union (EU) except Denmark, Sweden and, of course, the United Kingdom. The question for we North Americans is whether the launch of the euro provides any lessons as we move toward closer integration in sectors from border patrols and military personnel to vehicle emission standards and common visas? The answer must be yes. Not only was the changeover orderly but the euro appears to be eagerly accepted in the members countries. It is ironic that before the euro was launched, the currency favored by travelers in Europe, wrestling with a dozen different currencies, was the US dollar. Clearly, the euro was not only intended to replace the US dollar for travelers but to compete with it on many levels, most importantly among financiers and business people round the world. And in this test it has performed well, too. The daily gauge of who's winning the competition is the exchange rate between the US dollar and the euro. And in the last few months, those betting on the euro reeled in tidy profits as it outperformed the US dollar, beginning its competitive life earlier this year hovering around US$0.88, then pushing ahead to about US$0.97 in the last few weeks. So, watching from this side of the Atlantic, the euro already looks like a robust teenager less than a year after its official launch. And its relative success has proved many doubters wrong, including many North Americans, as well as demolished a few myths. First, while the British are the main holdouts, the majority of people in the 12 countries who accepted the euro did so with enthusiasm. They willingly gave up some of their monetary autonomy for the greater convenience and efficiency the euro offers. Second, French patisseries are still far superior to German ones and Belgian french fries are the best in Europe. In a word, national cultures, including national tastes and idiosyncrasies have not changed and are unlikely to soon. Third, despite sharing a common currency, the political views of the 12 often remain far apart on many important issues and they will continue to do so. A recent example was German Chancellor Gerhard Schroder's very vocal split with the US over its Iraq policy that helped get him re-elected in the German vote last month. Most other European countries, including Britain, support the US policy toward Iraq. Undoubtedly, the attitude Europeans show toward the euro and its signal success in the streets of Paris, not to say with the industrialists of Dusseldorf and among the ship merchants in Rotterdam, will force us to re-think our assumptions about a common currency in North America, that is to say, the US dollar. One is that a common currency leads to loss of autonomy. It hasn't happened in Europe. There has been no stifling of a French or German or Dutch or Greek voice in European or world affairs. Another is that Canadians will never accept the idea of a common currency in North America. One who pooh-poohs that assumption is Herbert Grubel, emeritus professor of economics at Simon Fraser University. He believes that Canadians would overwhelmingly support a common currency with the US. This is what he said in an interview in Policy Options (September 2000) during a debate on the topic "Does North America Need an Amero?" I can tell you that if tomorrow a politician were to make it (common currency) a major issue in the next election, public opinion surveys would show that the vast majority of Canadians would like it. That certainly has been my impression from talking to people. Businessmen all love it. The average investor loves it. The older people who take their holidays in the United States love it. Even though Prof. Grubel is assuredly right that Canadians would confidently endorse a common currency, it doesn't mean our political leaders will take up the cause any time soon. Yet the happy experience with the euro so far is certain to speed the process toward the inevitable. Is there anyone who doubts a common currency in North America is inevitable? James Ferrabee welcomes comment on this column at jferrabee@irpp.org |