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"Une politique qui rendra sa place au Canada sur la scène internationale" by Paul Martin In a major foreign policy address to the Montreal Council on International Relations, shortly before calling the election, Prime Minister Paul Martin set out his agenda for Canada’s role in the world. He proposed the creation of a G-20, including China and India, to address global issues from terrorism to AIDS. He also announced the formation of Canada Corps, where Canadians would help developing countries in institution building. “We need a foeign policy,” he said, “that recognizes that the world’s new borders are not those of states but rather those of ignorance, intolerance and injustice.” "Echoes of 1957: a realignment in the making?" by John Meisel The 1957 election unexpectedly ushered in an era of minority governments in Canada. Following John Diefenbaker’s stunning minority win in the election of June 10, 1957, he was returned with the famous landslide of 1958, only to be reduced to a minority in 1962, followed by the Pearson Liberal minorities of 1963 and 1965. Of all these minority results, the 1957 outcome was the most significant one, “a realigning election,” as John Meisel writes. Author of the classic text, The Canadian Electionof 1957, Meisel observes from his listening post at Queen’s University that there are remarkable similarities and obvious differences between the 2004 and 1957 elections, but suggests that many signs point to a minority government and concludes “a realignment is taking place no matter what the outcome of 2004.” "From inflated expectations to reality-based politics: a campaign test for Layton's NDP" by Robin V. Sears When it comes to election expectations, the NDP has a long history of getting ahead of themselves, and the outcome of federal campaigns. The June 28 election, however, promises to be the party’s most competitive since its high-water mark of 43 seats and 20 percent of the popular vote under Ed Broadbent in 1988. After a decade and three elections in the wilderness, the NDP is back with a telegenic and bilingual leader, a full campaign war chest, a motivated party base, and a Liberal legacy of scandal. The danger is that, as in 1988’s free trade election, another opposition party, the Conservatives, will monopolize the conversation on the sponsorship scandal. “Tories do endlessly pounding attack campaigns well,” writes longtime NDP war room strategist Robin Sears. “New Democrats tend to get squeamish after a few days and introduce a new day care policy.” Under Layton, he suggests, this time could be different, provided the NDP leader avoids traps such as laying out his terms for co-operating with a minority Liberal government. "Opportunity knocks for the Tories - a question of timing and advantage" by Stanley H. Hartt When the former Alliance and Progressive Conservative parties merged last fall, the leadership of the new Conservative Party of Canada seemed a prize hardly worth winning, such were the assumptions of a Liberal landslide under the leadership of Paul Martin. Then came the auditor general’s explosive report on the sponsorship scandal in February. Liberal polling numbers cratered into minority territory, with the Conservatives the main beneficiaries in English-speaking Canada, and a resurgent Bloc in Quebec. Suddenly, with the prospect of a Liberal or even a Conservative minority government, the Conservative leadership became important. Since winning the job on March 20, Opposition Leader Stephen Harper has moved to position the party closer to the centre, while shrugging off Liberal attempts to portray him as an extremist. Stanley Hartt, a leading Conservative intellectual and longtime Tory activist, considers the political ground gained by the Right since the merger, and the ground the Conservatives still have to make up if they are to catch up to the governing Liberals. "Intention and impact: Canadians reflect on their votes" by Jack Jedwab Voter participation rates in Canada have declined from 75 percent in the 1988 election to only 61 percent in 2000. Going into the 2004 campaign, the Association of Canadian Studies and Environics measured the intention of Canadians to vote. The poll found that 72 percent of respondents intended to vote, with intention highest in Quebec at 78 percent. Voters in the older demographic groups said they were most likely to vote, while the youngest segment was considered least likely. As for the impact of their vote, less than half, 48 percent, throught their vote would have a major impact or some impact on government policies, while 51 percent thought their vote would have little or no impact. Jack Jedwab of the ACS details the findings of the mood of Canadians about their vote. "How to fix Western alienation" by Joseph Heath [summary not available] "Ten years after NAFTA - a baseline for discussing deepening North American integration" by Gerónimo Gutierrez Fernandez Ten years after implementation of NAFTA, it can be described “in terms of its original architecture as quite a success,” says Mexico’s top foreign affairs official for North America. Though NAFTA may have been “oversold as a solution to all of our economic problems,” he adds it has been clearly beneficial to all three NAFTA countries in terms of trade and financial flows. But, suggests Gerónimo Gutierrez Fernandez, bilateral and trilateral relations among Mexico, the United States and Canada “have evolved very weakly.” NAFTA is the baseline of any discussion of where we go from here. But the context that gave birth to NAFTA, globalization and trade liberalization in the 1990s has given way to the anti-free trade movement of the new century and the US security agenda of the post 9/11 world. Where the Mexican-US border discussion was once framed by migratory issues, it is now also marked, as is the Canada-US border, by US security concerns. While trade has increased exponentially at the borders, the enhancement of border infrastructure has not. Clearly, one objective “is to strike an appropriate balance between security and facilitation of trade.” "Migration, trade, and security: big issues come in combinations" by Sidney Weintraub Ten years after the implementation of NAFTA, a leading thinker on North American integration looks ahead and suggests that a larger continental framework will eventually emerge “through an open debate of substantive ideas and the passage of time.” After all, Sidney Weintraub observes, the European Union has been “50 years in the making.” The current debate is dominated by security and immigration issues. On security, the challenge is to create a Canada-US border that is “open to trade and closed to terrorists.” Immigration policy remains to some degree a question of income disparity, especially as between the United States and Mexico. While there is a lack of North American institutions to advance big ideas in the larger interests of the region, the discussion of issues such as monetary union is beneficial in and of itself. “Nations,” Weintraub concludes, “often make progress when they debate important matters.” "The next plateau in North America: what's the big idea?" by George Haynal While NAFTA may have over-delivered in terms of trade flows over the last decade, it has under-delivered on expectations for creating a common North American mindset and institution building in a single market, asserts a former senior Canadian diplomat in the US. The delay in moving to the next continental plateau has been prolonged by American security concerns, in the aftermath of 9/11, for secure as well as smart borders. Yet important opportunities are open to Canada within a more structured relationship within a more structured North America, argues George Haynal. Natural resources close to markets provide a significant comparative advantage that needs to be treated as such. Compatibility in Canadian and US regulatory systems allows for greater efficiency through subsidiarity that has yet to be explored. “Demographics will soon make it obvious,” furthermore, “that North America enjoys a unique privilege in being the only industrialized region that can draw on a young (Mexican) labour force to supplement an aging one (In Canada and the United States).” Finally Haynal observes that “North American security is a joint need; it should be supplied as a common enterprise. He proposes a four point Canadian agenda for North American integration: regulatory interoperability (particularly of capital markets), natural resource security, integrated labour markets and a continental approach to security.” "The quiet reality of North American energy interdependence" by Joseph M. Dukert The electricity blackout in eastern North America in August 2003 underlined the continental integration, and interdependence, of energy. Spiking gasoline prices in the spring of 2004 underline the need for North America to develop more oil and gas supplies in an environmentally sustainable manner. Indeed, Canada and Mexico already export as much oil to the US as does Saudi Arabia, and the US greatly relies on Canadian gas, just as Mexico is heavily reliant on American gas. Meanwhile, several Canadian provinces, including Ontario, were net importers of US electricity in 2003, while other provinces, including Quebec and British Columbia, were net exporters. Continental oil and electricity exchanges doubled between 1990 and 2000, while gas trade grew even faster. “The three countries of North America did not start out in the early 1990s to create energy interdependence,” notes Washington energy consultant Joseph Dukert, “yet clearly that is what we have n o w.” Though still only a small segment of NAFTA trade flows, North American energy trade now exceeds US$50 billion a year and is certain to keep growing. "Immigration - mapping the new North American reality" by Deborah W. Meyers and Kevin O'Neil Immigration and movement across the borders of the three NAFTA countries is one of the defining realities to be faced in determining deeper integration in North America. There were 350 million land crossings at the US borders last year, over 100 million at the Canadian border, and over 200 million at the Mexican border. There were more than 9 million Mexican-born persons in the US in 2000, more than 10 times as many Canadian-born persons. Since September 11, 2001, immigration issues have taken a back seat to border security, but “both must be addressed for North American integration to expand beyond trade of goods,” write Deborah Myers and Kevin O'Neill of the Migration Policy Institute in Washington.There are strategic considerations: who will be able to cross the border, how many and under what conditions, as well as tactical ones such as how to administer programs and control the borders. And there are the larger policy frameworks. “Sweeping US immigration reform,” they conclude, “fundamentally would shift the trajectory of North American integration and expand the potential benefits of cooperation on migration matters within the continent.” "Mapping the new North American reality: the road sector" by Mary R. Brooks What was NAFTA intended to accomplish for the transportation sector, and what has it achieved? Though NAFTA did not produce a completely liberalized transport sector, this was arguably not the intended goal, nor would it have been a realistic one, either. Mary R. Brooks of Dalhousie University identifies two main areas of concern to Canadian trucking firms — non-tariff barriers (implying the need for harmonization of standards) and cargo access — and concludes that neither area has developed sufficiently to meet those concerns, nor are they likely to improve without several large doses of political will that may, in all likelihood, be lacking on all three sides as domestic politics and the post-September 11th security agenda intervene. "Civil society and North American integration" by Laura Macdonald Any proposals to deepen North American integration that ignore the role of civil society do so at their peril, argues Laura Macdonald of Carleton University. In earlier stages of integration, dissenting voices in civil society, including environmental and labour activists, nearly derailed both the Canada-US Free Trade Agreement and NAFTA. Both debates were deeply polarizing, with states and business activists supporting free trade, and a wide range of civil society actors opposing it. The two NAFTA side accords on the environment and labour did create supranational structures with the potential to promote citizen engagement, but both NAFTA commissions lack effective enforc e m e n t . In any project for deeper North American integration, she concludes, “civil society organizations in all their diversity deserve a voice.” "Foreign policy review: North American integration defines the world in which we live, one in which we have much to offer" by Bob Rae Whichever party forms a majority or minority government in the coming national election, Canada’s foreign, trade and defence policy will invariably reflect Canada’s interests and values. Those economic interests and security issues are largely defined by Canada’s relationship with the United States. Fifteen years after the Free Trade Agreement, 10 years after NAFTA, economic integration in North America “is now irrevocable,” writes Bob Rae. Fifteen years after the collapse of the Berlin Wall and the end of the Cold War, the promised peace dividend has proven illusory. Amidst ethnic cleansing and global terror, he writes, “there is also a growing realization that the rule of law and governance matter in the world.” And in the reconstruction of failed states — riven by ethnic, religious and regional division — “the federal idea” may prove to be an idea whose time has come again. "Canada and the new American empire: asking the right questions" by Bill Dymond and Michael Hart The most frequently asked question by Canadians about the relationship with the United States seems to be: how close or distant should the two countries be? The problem with this question is that “it provides no policy guidance on any critical issue,” write two of Canada’s leading trade policy practitioners. For example, close or distant relations do not impact on whether Canada secures an exemption from the new US visitor card program, which could have a nasty sideswipe effect on cross-border movements. More recently, there has been an impetus of Canadian values driving foreign policy. The assumption that values “can and should inform policy,” they write, “is fatally flawed on both sides of the border.” In any event, they note, Canada’s relationship with the US, “is not the creation, still less the creature, of foreign policy.” "When security trumps economics - the new template of Canada-US relations" by David T. Jones Prime Minister Martin’s April 30 meeting with President Bush was at once an occasion to the turn the page from the Chrétien era, and a reminder that security still trumps trade on the American agenda. Martin’s White House visit was “politely inconsequential,” writes a former senior US diplomat to Canada, “the equivalent of a kitchen cup of coffee with the new neighbour on the block.” Going forward, both Paul Martin and George W. Bush are in election seasons, and both will either be reelected or leaving office by year’s end. One way or another, each country will be getting a new government, and in the meantime the relationship is likely to be managed by mid-level officials. Moving beyond disagreements over the war in Iraq, the question becomes how Canada can contribute to its reconstruction, as Bush put it, however Canada is “comfortable” in doing so. Whoever wins the US election in November, Iraq will remain important to the new administration, even if presidential hepeful John Kerry is considering exit strategies. Iraq is important to Canada, David Jones writes, only because “it is important to the US.” He adds: “It would be useful for Canadians to move past their personal distaste for George W. Bush, and remember that he could be president as long as Martin is prime minister.” Meantime, Jones concludes, Martin “begins with an enormous advantage in Canada-US relations — he is not Jean Chrétien.” "On being an ally: why virtue is not reward enough" by Thomas S. Axworthy The Canadian diplomat and scholar John Holmes once observed: “Coping with the fact of the USA is and has always been an essential fact of being Canadian. It has formed us just as being an island formed Britain.” Tom Axworthy, a noted practitioner of Canada-US relations and studies as principal secretary to Prime Minister Trudeau and Mackenzie King Chair at Harvard University, suggests that “we need a constructive relationship with the US, not to please them but to promote ourselves.” He proposes “4 Ds” to get Canada back on the Washington radar screen: “defence, development, diplomacy and democracy.” Canada’s defence deficit is all too apparent, while our development spending is a paltry 0.25 percent of output. In diplomacy Canada pales beside the effort of Mexico’s 63 consulates in the US. Afghanistan is one country where all these components, as well as the institutionbuilding of democracy, all come into play, and can not only enhance Canada’s standing in the international community, but directly benefit our relations with the US. “Being an ally means that one is neither a sycophant nor a freeloader,” Axworthy says. “You are, instead, a partner, and partnership means sharing the load.” "Intergovernmental transfers and societal values" by Thomas J. Courchene [summary not available] "La force de caractère" by John Parisella [summary not available] Book Review: Martin Papillon reviews Aboriginal Conditions: Research as a Foundation for Public Policy, edited by Jerry P. White, Paul S. Maxim and Dan Beavon [summary not available] Book Review: Desmond Morton reviews Dream No Little Dreams: A Biography of the Douglas Government of Saskatchewan, 1944-1961 by A.W. Johnson [summary not available] "Libéral, libéral, ou coincé ? Des principes libéraux et des entorses qu'il faut parfois y consenter" by William Watson [summary not available] |
