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"Le Québec au croisement - un virage à droite et la fin du modèle québécois" by Jean Charest From the inaugural address by Premier Jean Charest at the opening of the Quebec National Assembly on June 4, in which he declared the end of the Quebec Model. "Maintaining Social Ties: Social Capital in a Global Information Age" by John F. Helliwell Recent research has documented that social and economic relations remain strikingly local, especially when viewed in the light of many discussions of globalization. The main evidence for this is that the density of social and economic exchanges declines far more with distance and the crossing of national borders than could possibly be explained by transportation and border-related costs. One hypothesis explaining this localization in the face of global information is that social capital — defined by the OECD as “networks, together with shared norms, values and understandings that facilitate co-operation within and among groups” — both supports and is supported by frequent interactions. There is less available empirical evidence about how the various types of local, civic, regional, national and international social capital are created and destroyed, and how the different types of social capital are related to one another. John Helliwell, winner of the Donner Prize, surveys evidence suggesting that the relations among social capital of different types, and of different radii, are complementary rather than competitive. If these results should turn out to be generally applicable, he suggests, in an optimistic vein, adding social capital of types needed to better support international and global cooperation can be done without threatening the nature and value of local loyalties. "The Financial Sector in the Global Economy - After the Perfect Storm" by Donald J. Johnston Global financial markets grew through the long bull market of the 1990s until the bubble of “the new economy” burst in 2000. The subsequent correction has reduced global equity valuations by 40 percent overall, with even steeper declines in tech-heavy markets such as the NASDAQ. Then, as OECD Secretary-General Donald Johnston writes from Paris, the collapse of the dot.coms was followed by the correction in the telecom and technology spaces that saw Nortel Networks, for one, shrink from $375 billion in market capitalization to less than $3 billion at the bottom of the market in October 2002. The events of 9/11, the continuing war on terrorism, the war in Iraq and even the unforseen outbreak of SARS have combined to produce a perfect economic global storm. In the circumstances, writes the head of the organization representing the world’s developed nations, global markets have withstood a punishing test remarkably well. "Modernizing Canada's Approach to the Global Marketplace - Getting Governance Right in Trade Policy and Management" by Paul Stothart While Canada’s exports have grown to half of the country’s nongovernmental output under the Canada-US Free Trade Agreement and the NAFTA, Ottawa’s governance structures neither reflect nor reinforce the primordial importance of trade policy and trade markets in Canadian public policy. The Department of Foreign Affairs and International Trade continues to prioritize diplomacy over trade, to the detriment of Canada’s trade relationships, especially with the United States, and the development of new ones, particularly in the exploding Asian markets of China and India, where Canada’s share of trade has actually declined. Paul Stothart, a former policy advisor to the minister of International Trade, examines Canada’s institutional frameworks and concludes it’s time for reform of the governance structure to improve the responsiveness of the system, enhance Canadian competitiveness and target new markets. "The WTO on the Way to Cancun: Crossing the River by Feeling the Stones" by Robert Wolfe When we ask where the World Trade Organization is going after its debacle in Seattle and its success in Doha, we find neither imminent collapse nor a grand new design. We can see the difference between Doha and Seattle through the interlinked themes of inadequate WTO procedure, the evolving trade policy agenda and the changing role of developing countries. The first frame is the effort to make the institution stronger by improving transparency. The second frame is about the demands to deepen WTO disciplines in the era of globalization, when the meaning of liberalization moves from border measures to domestic regulations. The third frame is about making the WTO wider, where the context includes debates on the meaning of “development.” Robert Wolfe of Queen’s University looks ahead to the prospects for the Cancun ministerial conference in September, the most likely path for the WTO and what the Single Undertaking of the Doha round might contain. He suggests a Chinese metaphor to simplify a complex story: the WTO is “crossing the river by feeling the stones.” "Increased Canadian Investment Abroad is Good for the Canadian Economy" by Walid Hejazi Despite its strong fiscal performance in recent years, Canada is unlikely to become the “northern tiger,” as suggested by John Manley, given its weak foreign direct investment (FDI), as well as its chronically lagging expenditure on research and development (R&D). Walid Hejazi looks at the big picture and finds that Canadian multinational enterprises (MNEs) are increasingly locating abroad, while foreign MNEs are decreasingly locating in Canada. While the former has the effect of opening new markets to Canadian business, the latter is a worrisome trend. Among other developments, NAFTA has seen more foreign firms locating to the US rather than Canada, as a platform to the entire North American market. And while Canada has long since replaced the negative investment bias of the Foreign Investment Review Agency with the positive one of Investment Canada, Hejazi concludes that “the reputation effects of such policies persist for a long time.” "Canada's Auto Industry: Getting Back in Gear" by Jim Stanford" Canada’s auto industry grew in the 1990s to become the fourth largest in the world — with twice as many cars assembled as sold in Canada, $35 billion in new investments and 35,000 new high-paying jobs created in the process. But the Canadian industry has been in decline since its peak in 1999, writes the senior economist of the Canadian Auto Workers. Vehicle assembly has fallen by close to 20 percent, and Canada’s share of the North American auto market has declined from 16 to 13 percent. Canada has slipped to seventh place in the world, and could well fall out of the top 10 autoproducing countries within five years. Canada’s growth didn’t occur in a policy vacuum, but its decline is largely due to one, writes Jim Stanford, who concludes it’s time for leadership and creative public policy solutions for Canada’s largest manufacturing industry and the country’s most important exporter. Canada exports $97 billion worth of autos and parts, virtually all of which go to the United States, constituting 25 percent of Canada’s total exports. But burgeoning imports from other regions have recently thrown Canada’s automotive trade success into question. "Canadian Multinationals are Regional, not Global" by Karl Moore and Alan Rugman Canada would normally be regarded as a leader in economic globalization. Not necessarily, suggest Karl Moore and Alan Rugman, who use the Fortune 500 as a baseline to compare Canadian multinational enterprises (MNEs) as true global players, with significant operations in North America, Europe and Asia. They found that only Nortel Networks, Bombardier and Alcan had significant revenue streams in two of the three regions, and that none was yet a powerhouse in Asia. Given Canada’s dependency on the US market for 87 percent of our merchandise exports, the authors don’t foresee Canadian MNEs going truly global anytime soon. "Investir tôt et bien, plutôt que mal et tard : la politique familiale au Québec et au Canada" by Pierre Lefebvre and Philip Merrigan In 1997 the Quebec government introduced an important reform to its family policy which, among other things, resulted in a very significant increase in the child care services budget. In spite of its popularity and the interest it raises in the other provinces, Pierre Lefebvre and Philip Merrigan argue that this approach is ill-advised and is not producing the expected benefits. They propose, from a human capital development perspective, an alternative family policy that calls on the two levels of government and focuses on three broad axes: recognizing each child’s value through a universal family allowance, giving more choice to parents in balancing work and family, and combatting poverty through targeted educational programs and a generous work income supplement. This approach would involve additional costs that could be financed by reviewing the funding for programs of questionable effectiveness, such as subsidies for post-secondary education, overly targeted cash transfers to low-income families and training programs for under-qualified adults. "Avons-nous besoin de temps ?" by Diane-Gabrielle Tremblay Time is an increasingly rare commodity, and parents of young children are among those who have the least of it, with mothers having less than fathers. In the wake of the four-day work week for employees with children under 12 proposed by the Parti québécois, Diane-Gabrielle Tremblay sounds out parents’ interest in reducing the work week, and concludes that the idea attracts a good number of them, but not at any price. Independent of the question of financing, the adoption of a “time policy,” which could include a range of measures such as a reduced work week, longer annual vacations or the institution of a “time saving account,” will increasingly compel the attention of the authorities, including municipal governments. In the current demographic context, she notes however that it might be unwise to grant these measures exclusively to parents of young children, and that we should also consider offering them to older employees. "Modalités de garde des enfants et rôle du tribunal" by Évelyne Lapierre-Adamcyk With the increase in marital instability and the difficulty faced by many couples in reaching amicable child custody arrangements, courts are frequently called upon to intervene. In spite of the fact that shared custody is now more widespread, sole custody with the mother continues to be the most frequent custody arrangement. Based on her study of 806 divorce and separation cases, the author concludes that this cannot be explained by a court bias in favour of mothers. Judgements that are the result of arbitration are no more likely to be in favour of maternal custody than are those that ratify agreements between the parents. In fact, in divorce files, fathers are more likely to obtain sole custody through arbritration than through consent. A comparison of child custody arrangements entered into by divorcing couples with those reached by couples breaking a common-law marriage reveals, moreover, that married men are much more likely to obtain sole custody or shared custody than are men in a common-law marriage. "Avons-nous le régime d'assurance-emploi que nous voulons ?" by Shawn de Raaf and Carole Vincent Perhaps somewhat unloved, and probably misunderstood, the employment insurance program is nevertheless one of the largest social programs in Canada. In this piece Shawn de Raaf and Carole Vincent clearly and succinctly present the five principles that govern eligibility to regular benefits, which is no mean feat. They find that the complexity of some provisions can be confusing for many workers who are unemployed for the first time. And on the flip side, it is the workers who use the program most frequently — and often the firms that employ them — who know how best to take advantage of its various provisions. Based on the most recent research, they propose changes to improve the program’s effectiveness in this regard. But they also recognize that the changes they propose have to be assessed in light of recent changes to the effect that in addition to providing compensation for involuntary loss of a job, the employment insurance program is increasingly compensating workers who withdraw from the labour market for voluntary and even planned reasons related to balancing work and family. "The Missile Defence Debate: Beyond the Dialogue of the Deaf" by Scot Robertson After sitting on the fence on the question of missile defence for North America, Ottawa must finally decide whether to support the US National Missile Defense (NMD) initiative, also known as the Missile Defense Shield (MDS), or stand aside while the Bush administration goes ahead with it anyway. Since in its initial phase the program would be land and sea based, there is no issue of the weaponization of space, as had been the case with Ronald Reagan’s proposed Strategic Defense Initiative (SDI), known as Star Wars. While Canada is not being asked to contribute to the costs of NMD development, Ottawa’s support could determine whether the missile shield is deployed under NORAD, the North American Air Defense Command, in which Canada, as a junior partner, would at least have a role in defending North America from attack by rogue states or terrorists. Scot Robertson, an associate professor at Royal Military College, suggests Canada has two choices — participation or irrelevance. "Anatomie d'une campagne : Comment les libéraux ont repris le pouvoir à Québec" by Maurice Pinard With three parties vying to form the next government and an extremely volatile electorate, the last Quebec electoral campaign was riveting. Maurice Pinard outlines the evolution of voting intentions in Quebec since spring 2001, when the ADQ began their meteoric rise, until polling day, when Liberal won easily with 46 percent of the vote and 76 seats. This result, according to Pinard, can be explained by three factors. First, a desire for change: a general trend that at one time favoured the ADQ before transferring over to the Liberals; then, a decisive leaders’ debate that resulted in a reversal of opinion in favour of the Liberals; and finally, the constitutional spectre, which remains the major fault line on the Quebec electoral scene and strengthened the Liberals’ attraction. Thus the Liberal Party was able to present itself as the only credible option for change, reassuring on the issue of relations with the rest of Canada and promising on the leadership front, with Jean Charest winning public acclaim during the leaders’ debate. Meanwhile, the ADQ suffered from a lack of experience and the PQ, for its part, mistakenly placed the emphasis on its sovereignty option. This could only alienate the federalists without increasing support among dissatisfied sovereignists, who decided to support the ADQ instead. "Les grands enjeux économiques du Québec" by Pierre Emmanuel Paradis Written just after the Quebec elections, this article reviews the challenges that the new Liberal government will have to address, from the perspective of small and medium-sized businesses. Against the background of an aging population, globalization and quality of life, the author discusses five priority issues: the standard of living, employment, the role and size of the state, public finances and regulation. Book Excerpt: Fire and Ice: The United States, Canada and the Myth of Converging Values by Michael Adams For all the geographic proximity and economic integration between Canada and the United States, the two countries are fundamentally different and always have been, contends pollster Michael Adams. In a sense, he argues, the two countries were separated at birth, organized and governed differently. While “life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness” are at the centre of the American constitutional tradition, the Fathers of Confederation were content with a constitutional framework of “peace, order and good government.” In this exclusive excerpt from Fire and Ice, written with Amy Langstaff and David Jamieson, Adams argues that “the building of our two nations have been very different, one by conquest, the other by compromise.” One is the richest, most powerful nation in the world, and the other has the world’s best quality of life. "A Fond Au Revoir to France" by William Watson [summary not available] |
